A proposal………………..

[Lars (midessa)]

From a supposed commodities broker over on LinkedIn is floating the concept of stopping all ‘flash sales’ of grains to China. His contention is Brazil would then be the only supply of any significance to China, thus Brazilian grain would naturally increase in price, as China has very few countries willing to trade with in regards to grains. The ‘perception of scarcity’ always skyrockets the price of almost anything. The ‘Arab Oil Embargo’ of the 1970’s did the same thing. The world was awash in oil, but cut-off a major purchaser(USA), and prices went into the stratosphere, globally. 

[Chester5732]

Sounds interesting but even if it would work the US gooberment would find a way to lower prices because they want “cheap food”. They don’t mind sacrificing less than 2% of the population(farmers) to quiet down the other 98%. And before we get going on farm subsidies, they aren’t even enough to cover property taxes let alone anything else. 

[Dirt_Floor_Poor]

The last time a genius in the USA, Jimmy Carter, decided they would not sell grain to a major buyer, USSR, it was a major contributor to collapsing the farm economy. This is a terrible idea that would further cripple USA ag at a time it can’t afford it, just like last time. There are plenty of ways to accomplish our goals without destroying rural America. I guess there are those that refuse to learn from history. There are areas in northern Mo that have still not recovered from the Carter administration’s disastrous policies and market destruction. If soybean prices are high, I guarantee the world will produce them from somewhere and they won’t need the USA. 

[IH Forever]

When you look at the amount of corn and soybeans China is currently buying from the USA I don't think us stopping "flash sales" would make 1 bit of difference.  China has placed a huge emphasis on becoming self-sufficient on corn production.  And Brazil and Argentina are already almost the sole providers of soybeans to China. 

 

[Chester5732]

55 minutes ago, IH Forever said:

When you look at the amount of corn and soybeans China is currently buying from the USA I don't think us stopping "flash sales" would make 1 bit of difference.  China has placed a huge emphasis on becoming self-sufficient on corn production.  And Brazil and Argentina are already almost the sole providers of soybeans to China. 

 

I thought the Donald smoothed things over and china was buying soybeans from the US again. Maybe not. 

[IH Forever]

10 minutes ago, Chester5732 said:

I thought the Donald smoothed things over and china was buying soybeans from the US again. Maybe not. 

Very minimal amounts.  Yes they are buying more than 0 now, but not anything significant.

[mmi]

1 hour ago, IH Forever said:

Very minimal amounts.  Yes they are buying more than 0 now, but not anything significant.

Farm # are down 95%,    a huge contiguous field is 20 Ac +,then BTO

I drive past 1000+ ac NOT harvested. Naturally 80% of those are BTO (paid to farm) or first in line for govt handouts.

Those smaller couldnt afford ins or had to sell .10/$1 to ban-aide  input loans.

[766 Man]

2 hours ago, Chester5732 said:

I thought the Donald smoothed things over and china was buying soybeans from the US again. Maybe not. 

  Everybody wants to beat the system.  Why should China be any different?  That aside nothing is forever especially trade arrangements.  

[junkandcattle]

Speaking of screwing things up. Anyone on here remember Earl Butz?

I do and not fondly 

[Chester5732]

1 minute ago, junkandcattle said:

Speaking of screwing things up. Anyone on here remember Earl Butz?

I do and not fondly 

I don’t remember him but I heard enough about the pos that I don’t care for him. “Get big or get out”. He ruined farming for a lot of family farms. 

[Reichow7120]

23 minutes ago, junkandcattle said:

Speaking of screwing things up. Anyone on here remember Earl Butz?

I do and not fondly 

Before my time. But between him and Carter they helped set the stage for the less than stellar childhood growing up in the aftermath of the 80s ( born in 1984)

[Lars (midessa)]

Don’t forget Henry Kissinger, he was a big proponent of ‘use food as a weapon’. 

[ray54]

Earl got the US government out of the grain storage business. I only know what dad talked of in the time before Butz, because I got out of high school as he was running the USDA. Dad always said from the end of WW2 until Butz sold all government grain storage, any time it looked like grain price would go up the government dumped grain into the market putting the price right back to the loan price. 

With no 2 or 3 years worth of grain in USDA storage the price would move up and down. You had to do real market watching to get in the upper part of the market. But at least a chance to do better than average.

But who knows where South American grain growing would be if the US embargo on grain had not scared Japan into their big investment into Brazil back in the 1970's.  

[TWB]

Speaking of grain storage, wasn’t there a grain bin program by the USDA to put up grain bins with a low interest loan back during the 50’s,60’s and 70’s ? In my area there used to be several small grain bins ( maybe like 3500  bushel size bins ) around on a few farms, most are gone now, sold and moved or rusted out. 
 

I remember something about a government program for grain bins for farmers, not really sure all the details ( late seventies I was in high school and not really understanding everything back then ).

[53ihgarand]

I hate to say it, but it does need said, We need to forget about China as a Soybean buyer going forward. We're not friends anymore and quite frankly, the Chinese don't need our Beans. All the world talk of sustainable agricultural only seemed to constrain the US. The slash and burning of the rainforest that we're supposed to care about, isn't a concern of the people that actually live there. And all of our corporations and BTOs that went down and made a fortune. Using cheap labor, displacing local populations and no regulatory obstructions they've made quite the operation. So we need to seriously think about our use of soybeans as a cash crop here in the US going forward. Until something drastically changes down there, we're now the little guy at the poker table and we dealt ourself a bad hand.

[bkorth]

The dumbest thing we as a nation ever did was go to South America and show them how to farm, PERIOD.

[Wi Ih]

4 minutes ago, bkorth said:

The dumbest thing we as a nation ever did was go to South America and show them how to farm, PERIOD.

Truth!!!

[Big Bud guy]

44 minutes ago, bkorth said:

The dumbest thing we as a nation ever did was go to South America and show them how to farm, PERIOD.

And Russia.  Now they export instead of depend on the west because we gave them our tech and knowledge 

 

[Lars (midessa)]

41 minutes ago, Big Bud guy said:

And Russia.  Now they export instead of depend on the west because we gave them our tech and knowledge 

 

‘We’ didn’t ‘give’ the tech and knowledge away, our movers and shakers(Deere & Co., AGCO, etc.) sold it to them for 30 pieces of silver, booze, p*ssy, vacation homes.

[Gearclash]

1 hour ago, Lars (midessa) said:

‘We’ didn’t ‘give’ the tech and knowledge away, our movers and shakers(Deere & Co., AGCO, etc.) sold it to them for 30 pieces of silver, booze, p*ssy, vacation homes.

Or the Russians outright stole the information.  Story I heard once is that the Russians were set to tour some kind of high end manufacturing facility.  They were not allowed cameras or any such thing.  There were machining operations done at the facility and the Russians knew this.  A few of the delegates touring wore shoes with a special soft portion of sole.  The machining chips laying on the floor would embed in the soft material for the Ruskys to analyze at their leisure.  

[Big Bud guy]

2 hours ago, Lars (midessa) said:

‘We’ didn’t ‘give’ the tech and knowledge away, our movers and shakers(Deere & Co., AGCO, etc.) sold it to them for 30 pieces of silver, booze, p*ssy, vacation homes.

I know JD had at least one factory over there pre UA war making drills.   Can't speak for the others but I would assume if JD has one over there others do to.