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If you farmed in Ukraine what would you do?


acem
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Bullets and bombs are flying. People are dying in the streets.

Would you plant your crops?

Would you harvest them?

What about fuel and other inputs?

Places to sell or store your grain?

It's hard for me to decide what to do here. What is it like there?

If Ukraine looses this farming season there could be famine in parts of the world.

Thx-Ace 

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About like any farmer or rancher I assume. Just keep doing what you know and pray for the best. It's about all any of us could do. 

I just saw a piece on that region and 47% of the world's wheat exports come out of the black Sea region. Famine is a real possibility. 

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5 hours ago, acem said:

Bullets and bombs are flying. People are dying in the streets.

Would you plant your crops?

Would you harvest them?

What about fuel and other inputs?

Places to sell or store your grain?

It's hard for me to decide what to do here. What is it like there?

If Ukraine looses this farming season there could be famine in parts of the world.

Thx-Ace 

 

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A truck driver I know a week or so ago was hauling a deere sprayer to an east coast port so it could be shipped over there and on a different note watch this clip to the end and see if you catch it, The news team was lucky to make it but look at who gives them shelter and what they're doing

 

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I understand shipping is shut down in Ukraine due to the war. So the sprayer will probably set at the port for some time.

Farming during an active war in my area.

I would like to say I would plant and harvest crops. But honestly I don't have all my inputs on hand.

I have enough fuel to produce the crop but not harvest.

I could get by with seed but hybrid milo is much better than bin run. My soybeans and rice are conventional varieties.

I'm very short on chemicals but can cultivate my row crops and the flood helps in rice.

Spare parts?

A war could disrupt all supplies chain.

Lots to consider.

Thx-Ace 

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Depends on if I were near active fighting I suppose for one thing. Tho that can move at anytime. If I were away from fighting I suppose I would do what I could depending on availability of inputs and money to operate. Something is better than nothing surely.

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Can the farmers get supplies to farm with Fuel, Seeds ,fertilizers never mind parts and equipment. I think there’s going to be a-lot of unplanted  ground this year. I’m sure as bad as the media has been telling us about the Russians shelling the humanitarian routes they are trying to set up. are they also going after supply chains. Starve them out of house and home they will probably turn on their government and side with Russia  

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we were just talking about this yesterday. Its almost time to fertilize their wheat. I would think that sitting in my quadtrac running a planter in a 200 acre field in a war zone would be a real disincentive. But farmers know if you don't plant, you don't harvest. No harvest, people go hungry. I expect that Ukranian farmers have the same mindset. Don't know what I would do.

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I just wonder how much of the actual fighting is outside of the big cities?

in history books you never here of “the battle halfway between StLouis and Denver”

just a question not meant to take away the severity of what’s going on 

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I dont know what the work ethic is as a whole over there but I made some hay a few years ago for a local lawyer that owned a large amount of land over there in partnership with another business owner. He told me when they went over during planting or harvest time he had to practically take a bull whip to the help to get them in the field before lunch time. Now that is hired help which will have a different attitude than a landowner but....🤷‍♂️

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I'm going out on a limb here, as I have no insight into the region post Cold War, but there's not much reason to think they don't operate quite similar to how we do it here with operational loans and such. That being, I'd guess a lot of planting decisions for this spring are being made for them. You may be willing to sit in the tractor in the middle of an artillery barage, but does no good if you don't have money, seed, fertilizer, fuel, or hope of a successful harvest.

Now, being the region is basically the breadbasket of Europe, this just might be the country's ace in pocket. Militarily, Ukraine has little chance of a win if Putin unleashes the full might of power they have. But the power to starve many other countries around the world could build a pretty big alliance for Ukraine. 

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I believe Ukraine will not export any wheat and try to keep it for themselves as food is already getting to be in short supply. Certainly the availability of fuel and fertilizer will have a big impact. This is not the first time.  Hopefully the outcome will not be like Stalin's Red Famine.

Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine: Applebaum, Anne: 9780385538855: Amazon.com: Books

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2 hours ago, iowaboy1965 said:

I dont know what the work ethic is as a whole over there but I made some hay a few years ago for a local lawyer that owned a large amount of land over there in partnership with another business owner. He told me when they went over during planting or harvest time he had to practically take a bull whip to the help to get them in the field before lunch time. Now that is hired help which will have a different attitude than a landowner but....🤷‍♂️

From what I've heard from people who have spent time over there working for American companies, this is more of a problem than you would think. They all tell you the same story....it's hard to get the communist mentality out of many of the working class because its been so ingrained into them for 2 or 3 generations. 

When it comes to farming, they all use the same example about the work ethic over there....if you are planting a crop of something/anything over there, and your seeder runs empty, you just keep on going until your shift is done...with no seed in your seeder. Over here, you would stop seeding, go over to your seed source/supply, refill with seed, and go back to the spot in the field where you stopped seeding last, and continue seeding. Its just a different mentality....when there was no incentive for so many years, why try harder?

I also remember another story about a company rep. that went over there to help keep a fleet of combines going that were sold by a manufacturer over here. He went out to a field of wheat that was being harvested; there were 3 combines out in this wheat field, but only 1 of the combines was running. IIRC, the combine that was running was a 9600/9610 Deere, the other two were not Deeres. As this rep. approached the combine that was running, he noticed 3 guys crammed into the cab of this machine. Fearing that the other 2 machines were broke down, he quizzed the 3 guys about why they were all in one combine. Their answer....this was the only machine that had a working A/C, they couldn't get the other two machines' A/C systems to work, so they just parked those 2 machines and jumped into the one machine that did have a working A/C. He went over to the other 2 machines, and found the A/C systems to be in working order....they just didn't know how to turn the A/C systems on. After he showed them what had happened and how to make them work, they slowly went over to their machines and started combining with them. There was just no sense of urgency to get the crop in.

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14 hours ago, acem said:

f Ukraine looses this farming season there could be famine in parts of the world.

Only in USA as china has a deal to get the spoils/ farm products,dont need cidiotes just peasants out back in the hoouchi

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To plant or not to plant if you are in the Ukraine! Interesting question and brings home the point throughout the world of our food supply and it's dependent nature on all fronts. Weather, crop prices, availability and costs of fertilizer, herbicides, fuel. Then factor in the cost of machinery for planting, harvest, spraying, crop drying, storage, transportation and numerous other incidental costs and factors involved.  

 Already I've read of countries throughout limiting and outright prohibiting the export of their grains and food supplies. Saving what little they have for themselves as many countries are dependent upon imports of grains etc. for their very survival.

I've read that the Ukraine produces approx. 25% of the worlds grain supply. All in all this a huge amount, and will most definitely make a dent in the supply worldwide. Although Ukraine at present is in the hot seat, if you are not in the direct line of fire in Ukraine, I believe if you are in a grain or food producing occupation you would be pretty much left alone until things heat up more than at present. All European countries have reliance on the "Ukraine Bread Basket". It will only, and it's been done in the relatively recent past, becomes an issue when food starts to be used as a weapon. When it does become a weapon those using it will need a food supplyy from another source.

With the current sources of fuel, fertilizer, herbicides, etc. etc. becoming short worldwide, those alternate food sources will dry up sooner rather than later. Russia & Ukraine produce a huge amount of fertilizer and other products used in food production worldwide. If it was me, and I had the necessary part of this equation all together I would press on and pray for the best. But I tend to focus on what I need to do for muuy survival and those near and dear to me and ignore things out of my control. Sort of like acting locally affecting the bigger picture.

 But then when you get right to the heart of the matter right here at home, as I'm just getting this fiasco of mine up and running, due to the excessively increasing costs of everything I may end up putting the entire show on hold and spend my days fishing for non-existent fish. Cause all the enviros say we need to save water for fish or there is some already extinct frog trying to make a comeback or some other ill thought out nonsense.

And then to top it all off, ya'll got Chinklandistan to deal with. It all makes my head hurt.  

 

 

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A random thought.

Assume Russia somehow takes Ukraine.  Would they force the farmers to plant, or government takeover of farms and then say take the crop or a high percentage of it for the Russian government?  When would that need to happen by?  April?  May?

If Ukraine somehow fights them off and we don’t end up in WWIII. I’m assuming the farmers would still plant whatever they could to try to save the year.  Even if they planted in early June, I would think they could still get a crop to harvest… maybe.  
 

does anyone have numbers on what France was able to do agriculturally during either world war?  I would think farmers would try their best, but depending on how things are going, the crop might go in late.

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None of us have much of a picture of what has been going on in the last 25 years in the Ukraine. But if you sat on grandma's knee as she told you Stalin came and took every bit of food he could find and shoot grandpa for good measure because he might of hid a sack of wheat out in the woods. You might not think in any of the ways you have been talking about.

A lot of big corporate type farms with outside investment from foreign countries. So I cannot see much happening on those operations (but just a wild guess). I have seen the story of "local boy makes good" in farm papers with stories from over there. But what percentage is operated by locals, not a clue. But I can see them working harder taking a chance on planting. 

 

Western Europe was in a bad way both world wars. The first was probably worse as the fighting in France was most of the war. In the second it was over run in weeks and occupied until after June of 44.  In the second we had some grain reserves in the USA with  FDR's farm programs. They had been in place since the mid 30's. I think the government loan on grain was from the start and the forfeit to the government if the price was to low to pay loan off. 

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I have read some articles about farmers and managers being killed in shelling or other attacks. Fuel and fertilizer is in short supply and being by both militaries. The president of Ukraine is asking farmers to plant crops but  I expect a small harvest.

Thx-Ace 

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