acem Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 We have had alot of volatility and inflation for crop inputs and increases of crop prices lately. Covid/Corona, supply, transportation, Olympic and whatever else has made prices and availability so elusive that it is hard to decide what to plant... Now with the Russian Ukraine War there will be more disruption of Supply and volatility in prices. Here are some facts to consider. Russia is the second largest exporter of Oil. (How did the US become 4th?) Russia is the largest exporter of urea. Russia is the largest exporter of wheat and Ukraine is the 5th. Ukraine is the 4th largest exporter of corn. This war will disrupt production of crops in Ukraine. It will disrupt exports from Ukraine and Russia. I am guessing this will cause the price of wheat, corn, urea and oil to increase. Please keep this non political. I would like a reasonable discussion on crop and input prices. And for the topic not to be poofed! Thx-Ace 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brahamfireman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Plan last October was to go corn heavy, like 2/3 to 3/4 of acres just because beans are so dang hard to keep clean without chemicals. Corn is fairly easy, Laudis and Atrazin do a great job around here, always been a one spray crop around here. Beans are 3 pre and for sure a 2 chemical post spray. N price is going to hurt but even at $1600 a ton NH3 that's still only $130 per acre. If Dec22 corn is $6, after basis, trucking, drying that's still over $5. @ 150 B/A that's $750 acre gross, still plenty of money to be made. Should add 75% of corn and beans seed is paid for, but not delivered, all diesel is in my tanks. All fertilizer was spread last fall, except N. Sadly I didn't buy any chemicals yet, but corn chemicals are usually pretty easy to get, lots of choices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmi Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 in USA, ONLY the btos will rake it in and those that think they are, will get some bits. by buying selling volume. costs for those goods will only go up for the USA consumer ,as the BTO will be, again both sides, buying/importing LOW !!! selling/ exporting high . ,hay is $2b right now,our product in store is $25-30 b, next years inputs with fast pencil are $5>+ and labor is free had 2 calls this week to pick up the "huge" amount of 50 b ,on demand like we sit there 24/7 for $100 cattle are < $.85 but $8.50 ++ in store BC both sides, there is no one to work. all in the bean counters head. just baling consumables were $4800 last year vs $2800 avg, this year if found they are....."dont quote me"until after your out the door COD $13K...............um (7%) 150% inflation over 75% deflation on sales. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brahamfireman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 1 minute ago, mmi said: in USA ONLY the btos will rake it in and those that think they are will get some bits. by buying selling volume. costs for those goods will only go up for the USA consumer ,as the BTO will be again both sides, buying/importing LOW !!! selling/ exporting high . ,hay is $2b right now,our product in store is $25-30 b, next years inputs with fast pencil are $5>+ and labor is free had 2 calls this week to pick up the "huge" amount of 50 b ,on demand like we sit there 24/7 for $100 cattle are < $.85 but $8.50 ++ in store BC both sides, there is no one to work. all in the bean counters head. just baling consumables were $4800 last year vs $2800 avg, this year if found they are....."dont quote me"until after your out the door COD $13K...............um (7%) 150% inflation over 75% deflation on sales. Are you saying hay bales are $2 a bale where you are??? If so I'll take whatever you can get on a couple 24' gooseneck trailers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimw Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Remember a old cowpokes cartoon. If we’re gonna buy hay bales for $2 and sell hay bales for $2 we’re gonna have to get a bigger truck 😳 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmi Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, brahamfireman said: Are you saying hay bales are $2 a bale where you are??? If so I'll take whatever you can get on a couple 24' gooseneck trailers. you want the trailer loaded also...? You will not get down the goat paths nor want anything that actually sells for < $5.. basically yes .unless fast talking BTO... <$5 with 50 mile FREE delivery FREE labor, and 2 miles out mud road or narrow fenced fancy $$$ yard hand carried ,stacked, up around back on 3rd floor. ......but ours will rot first...check and CC not accepted ........then .obviously, we will not have the EXTRA $10K for supplies..........so going to be ALL large dry,. Btos are $8-10 + and/or bringing in big sq and re baling. and one of those our buyer quit to sell bulk ONLY bag salt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirt_Floor_Poor Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 We experienced an explosion in cash rent prices here following the high prices of 2012. This all worked great until everything came back to reality. There was widespread prevent plant claims here in 2015. Things were in bad shape by then anyway, mostly because rents had not come back down. One of my neighbors went bankrupt following the 2015 crop season. The high input prices won’t be a problem until commodity prices are depressed for several years in a row, which may or may not happen. My biggest fear is something similar to the Russian grain embargo happening again. It doesn’t have to be Russia, it could be China, and it wouldn’t have to be for grain. Something like that could basically make you go broke on paper overnight. Especially if you have real estate debt. Not to mention ridiculous interest rates, which looks like it could be a real possibility. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmall1066 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 4 hours ago, acem said: Russia is the largest exporter of urea. And if we (USA) started pumping out of the Bakken again, we’d have our own oil, and a bunch of urea to go around, plus export!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acem Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 I've been reading up on sanctions (US and EU) against Russia, commodities are not included. No sanctions against oil, gas, urea, wheat, etc. This will reduce the disruption of supplies (but it means the sanctions are not serious). China is not sanctioning Russia at all. If the war is over quickly, and it's looking that way, the disruption of Ukraine agriculture may not be too severe. I still expect more changes in our prices. Thx-Ace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delta88 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 We're setting up for a mini disaster again. Not as bad as the 80s but something like it. Land prices in the delta continue to climb with 2.5% cap rates as the max est return. I see it on appraisal reports that come across my desk. Been ratcheting downwa rd for years now. US.10 year treasury at 2 %. Once they equalize there's no real reason to invest in land from an investment perspective unless it's only due to love of the dirt. I still remember people rolling over cds in 80 and 81 for 16-17%. They never regretted no buying land Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerFixEmUp Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 I've been pricing nitrogen and sulfur, haven't bought any yet. Dry urea is .82 to .96 a unit and liquid from .95 to 1.10. Sulfur dry is .66 to $1.07 and liquid is at $1.18. I can apply either myself with a buggy or the sprayer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acem Posted February 26, 2022 Author Share Posted February 26, 2022 I'm seeing prices around 900 a ton for urea. I think that's about the same. 50 a gallon for glyphosate. 120 for liberty. I hear attrazine is short as well but I don't use much. Rice chemicals are in good supply. Thx-Ace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bud guy Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 54 minutes ago, acem said: I'm seeing prices around 900 a ton for urea. I think that's about the same. 50 a gallon for glyphosate. 120 for liberty. I hear attrazine is short as well but I don't use much. Rice chemicals are in good supply. Thx-Ace The place I bought roundup from last year said $42 a gallon for glyphosate going up to $45 next week. And like elsewhere they are on an allotment meaning previous buyers only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delta88 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 Glyphosate is in short supply Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brahamfireman Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 8:53 PM, mmi said: you want the trailer loaded also...? You will not get down the goat paths nor want anything that actually sells for < $5.. basically yes .unless fast talking BTO... <$5 with 50 mile FREE delivery FREE labor, and 2 miles out mud road or narrow fenced fancy $$$ yard hand carried ,stacked, up around back on 3rd floor. ......but ours will rot first...check and CC not accepted ........then .obviously, we will not have the EXTRA $10K for supplies..........so going to be ALL large dry,. Btos are $8-10 + and/or bringing in big sq and re baling. and one of those our buyer quit to sell bulk ONLY bag salt. Where are you located? I am always fascinated by the hay market and how variable it is. I put up 100 small squares this summer because the ground fell in my lap. I have no hay equipment and no desire to do it, so I did it on shares with the neighbor. Local auction house is getting $8-10 a small square for anything green, lots of hobby horse, goat, beef, people around here. Small rounds go for more than big rounds because hobby people don't have big enough tractors to move them. Big squares you never see at auction, no one can handle them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmi Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 3 hours ago, brahamfireman said: than big rounds because hobby people don't have big enough tractors to move them. Big squares you never see at auction, no one can handle them. NE About right, but some of the BTO horsies are importing,big sq from kentucky or out west, with 500-1000 acre, open flat. and pay just a little more than the trucking. (not needing ) 2 part time helpers ,pays for the china $#$$ loader in 2- 3 yrs and they just throw up a cheap no tax storage shelter. When we sold to them it was 3-15 days before they would accept a "delivered " and hand stacked $5.25/200b ,wagon for storage and 3- 15 days to get it back. having $40K of equipment out of service at peak time hurts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmerboy72 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 cleaning out the bin today, glad to see the prices come up to help cover the increased expenses(short term thinking). Long term thinking makes me wonder though. They say what goes up, must come down! Just hope everyone has themselves positioned correctly when that time comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mmi Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 our 1/2 of normal, hay supplies are 2 weeks out IF !!! shipped 6-8 wks early to dealer, $6300 vs last yrs inflated and 1/4 short $3200. Remember its only 7% increase lest you kill the planet and support the war. Also had to get meds today , they had 8 people on staff,and CLOSE up for stay in cage, lunch starting today, 6 power criminal gates like NYC. They did have 10 seats for the women to wait. 2 staff ,were just to handle "price adjustment" since EVERYONE has a different $ and you need to pay CLOSE attention $$$$. Also picked up 2 months of car gas, saved $30, vs next week > 2 x 4 was 9.89 osb 44.99 no x 30 w oil (2) 5" ,4oz sandwich,25 fries $10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acem Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 Crop prices are way up today. The markets are crazed over the war. I don't know what to do honestly. Dad always said that if you could consistently out guess the markets that you have no business farming. You'll make more money playing the futures. He added many expletives about jews that I won't say... Thx-Ace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brewcrew Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 I was sitting on a bin full of unpriced corn, 5000 bu, hoping for $7. People smarter than me called me crazy. My neighbors (who are really good to me) asked to buy some, so I sold 2000 bu to them in low $6’s. With corn limit up today I could get $7, but at this point I think I’ll get greedy. I might be wrong, but I can afford to be. Not sure if I’ll hold for $8, or take mid $7’s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimw Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 To be honest I’ve thought maybe summer fallowing a large portion might be cheapest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bud guy Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, jimw said: To be honest I’ve thought maybe summer fallowing a large portion might be cheapest There is going to be a lot of there going on here. Problem is most people blocked up their strips to make it easier and more efficient for no-till. A continuous 320 to 600 acre block of bare dirt will blow like the dust bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brahamfireman Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, jimw said: To be honest I’ve thought maybe summer fallowing a large portion might be cheapest You must be in a severely dry area with poor yields to make that work? Dec corn is 5.67 here, after trucking and drying your guaranteed 5.15, @ 150 bushel that's $772 an acre gross. Still looking at over $200 an acre net profit easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jass1660 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 2 hours ago, brahamfireman said: You must be in a severely dry area with poor yields to make that work? Dec corn is 5.67 here, after trucking and drying your guaranteed 5.15, @ 150 bushel that's $772 an acre gross. Still looking at over $200 an acre net profit easily. That doesn’t work in central Illinois with $500/acre rent… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigan No Till Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Protect the bottom side, prices are down from the highs set on the overnight last Wednesday, except wheat. Trading above 10 dollars right now. If your setting on a bin full that will help with fertilizer this spring if there's any available! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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