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$7.50 corn and even higher.


lorenzo
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I know calves are not corn...but this autumn sale, our calves have averaged $200.00   less than last year.....That is a big drop...and the pundits blame the domestic market...but, to me, that is a  bizarre    statement....but....aagain....the export price paid by the meat companies, has also dropped......

Mike

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On 5/8/2021 at 7:13 AM, Ihfan4life said:

https://iowalandsales.com/speakers/sue-martin/

Is this the Sue Martin that you mentioned ?

My read between the lines interpretation will be double digit inflation. $7.00 gas, and $6 for a gallon of milk, if you can get it.

Realistically I don’t see how you’re going to see $19 corn and $30 beans, but maybe it’s just my pessimistic opinion as of late?

 

 My thinking is along these lines. Most of you guys aren't figuring in the entire economy which is showing the same symptoms the grain market is showing. Double digit inflation, material shortages economy wide. You wait for months to get whatever you need. No guarantee on the price whatsoever. 

I was screaming about this on here to the doubters a year ago that a economic trainwreck was coming with our approach to the economic closures for the chink virus. I said we were heading to a Weimar Republic economy which trust me you don't want.

Land rents in my area where they have gone open have gotten stupid just lately. We bid on renting 180 acres from the local college someone gave up. 5 bidders. Single year lease ( won't go any further out than that so you bid every year.) Has had bare fertility put on. Hasn't seen lime on it in probably 25 years. 4 of us were right in line from 105 to 120 a acre. Pretty good for the type of land it is. Biggest field is 22 acres. Rest are between 8 and 14 acres. Obviously a bunch of overgrown fencerows. Then one guy comes along and offers 150 a acre. Mind you this same individual had to sell a large chunk of land 4 years ago to pull him out of the tailspin his spending spree during the last run put him in. Looks like history is going to repeat itself if things head South again with all the spending he's doing. Some people never learn. 

Another case that really blows my mind I heard yesterday. There is a guy around here that is seriously the laziest farmer in the world. He is still harvesting last year's crop as I write this ( was running beans last night ?). Well he lost some land to another farm this spring. The one property is overgrown, fertility worse than what I listed above,  weed control hardly there. ****, we think the last few years he just went in and disked what was left of his crop of beans in and saw what grew. Someone offered the land owner 100 a acre to rent. Another guy offered 150 a acre to rent it and to clean up the mess. We picked up better ground than that 2 years ago for less than the 2 examples above. 

Those of you in the promised land are thinking "Wow that's cheap ". Remember this is poorer, rockier, tree lined, hilly ground. Heinz 57 soils. On fantastic years where literally every thing goes perfect you are lucky to hit 200 bpa.

The 3 of us were talking the other day. If you managed to lock in your inputs before everything went crazy ( like we did) and contracted for a decent price and have the production. This is your 1 year to make some money and 1 year only. Because after this your inputs have caught right back up with you. You generate more money but your profit isn't any better. You're just handling more money is all. Not keeping any more of it. I made the comment that I bet Dad and Grandpa had better profit margins in the 70s long term than we do now. 

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Cash Corn here currently 

One elevator is paying 7.52 cash and you can contract for 6.06 fall delivery. Corn

Soybeans are $16.14 cash and can lock in $13.83 fall delivery 

Ethanol plant is paying 7.62 cash and can contract fall delivery at $6.16

Elevator we haul beans to is $ 16.35 cash beans. Contract beans for fall at 13.99. 

Corn there is 7.42 cash and 6.17 fall delivery contract 

Soft red wheat is what we raise here.

1st elevator 6.16 cash. 6.26 contract July/August delivery 

2nd elevator 7.42 cash. 7.52 summer contract. 

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im glad we bought a new combine last fall during corn harvest. also glad i bought a planter in february. i know the combine is much higher we bought a year left over saved big money, planter last i knew it was quit a bit higher it was going up 8000 if it hit the dealer lot. we need the prices down around 4 and 10 this will DESTROY everything!!! yes im a young farmer inputs will go through the roof im very scared for next year and the year after now with prices being like this. we will go back to 4 dollar corn with inputs ungodly!!!

 

ALlen

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4 hours ago, Reichow7120 said:

You generate more money but your profit isn't any better. You're just handling more money is all. Not keeping any more of it. I made the comment that I bet Dad and Grandpa had better profit margins in the 70s long term than we do now. 

all part of the narrative,if you run $ up, then, the more hands and higher % are not seen.

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What happened the last time was that some of the BTO's and wanna be BTO's forward contracted new crop at big dollars, then ran cash rent sky high to pick up more land. They then milked the residual fertilizer for a year. When prices came down they re-figured cash rent so they could keep the land, or just walked away and let somebody else apply build it back up.

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2 hours ago, dads706 said:

What happened the last time was that some of the BTO's and wanna be BTO's forward contracted new crop at big dollars, then ran cash rent sky high to pick up more land. They then milked the residual fertilizer for a year. When prices came down they re-figured cash rent so they could keep the land, or just walked away and let somebody else apply build it back up.

Had a local back in '13 have a ad on Craigslist saying. Farm ground 300.00 in the title. Then in the comments said family farm looking to expand and how good they'll treat the land and this and that bait tactics. I'm sure you will be seeing stuff like that again

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