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$7.50 corn and even higher.


lorenzo
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What are your thoughts about the current prices and predicted future prices?  I’m going to contract some corn on Monday . Some think it will go even higher at harvest , wish I had the answer . Nearby ethanol plant is paying $7.58 today . What do you think will happen and why? 

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$7.55 here today. I am really not sure it will stay high. My feeling is it is going to crash as fast as it went up when it does. If our crop starts to look good, I see a drop coming. But I never did guess that well. Personally I see this creating a huge wreck for everything on the farm. It is too much too fast. 

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I have no idea where the price is headed but I can tell you I hate what $8 corn does to the feeder market. I rely more on my calf check than my corn check...  if corn could just settle in at $5 I think I would be happy on both sides.

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Sue Martin predicting $19 corn and $30 beans next year....so in other words the crash will come hard and fast but inputs and rent won’t drop guaranteed. 

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Just remember the aftermath from 2012. Should pretty much sum it up. Hopefully this time, that's kinda fresh in people's minds yet. When they we're preaching back then corn will never get below 5 dollars again, we all found out, O yes it will. And some learned a hard lesson. Everyone should always remember farming has more bad times than good. Be wise with your decisions during this time.

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There is so much at play right now its really hard to tell imo. If there is an over abundance of corn/beans prices can't help but stabilize or Come down a bit imo.

   BUT it really depends on the endgame of our current political structure and If they keep power and how much they mess things up In the name of climate change ect ect. If we keep seeing an ever increase in a socialist way of doing things it could get extremely bumpy imo.

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Another note I think alot of dealership's are really going to loose big money during this time because of lack of inventory. Some has to do with the pandemic. Some because of demand. Some because of being too conservative ordering whole goods. Dealership's never really saw this coming either. Now nobody is willing to do transfer's because of tight supplies. I've heard of salesman getting into it fighting over a piece of machinery to sell even. Lol! There's some multi store dealership's around that have practically no new inventory anymore and we're not 6 months into the year yet. The one has a too conservative individual who's in charge of ordering whole goods. Didn't order near enough for a average year, let alone this year. Don't really think he wants the job, just kinda got it gave to him. He's a good salesman and I think he would rather just sell equipment  That's really going to effect their bottom line this year with lack of inventory.

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Uk wheat prices on the up just sold last load @£200 ton or$260 forward price feed wheat harvest movement £185/$240 osr/ canola £380 $494 per ton using exchange rate of 1.3 dollars to the pound

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Heck not sure if a bushel will buy a 2x4 .... Inflation, massive inflation is coming along with a crash 

My opinion anyway

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4 hours ago, jass1660 said:

Sue Martin predicting $19 corn and $30 beans next year....so in other words the crash will come hard and fast but inputs and rent won’t drop guaranteed. 

https://iowalandsales.com/speakers/sue-martin/

Is this the Sue Martin that you mentioned ?

My read between the lines interpretation will be double digit inflation. $7.00 gas, and $6 for a gallon of milk, if you can get it.

Realistically I don’t see how you’re going to see $19 corn and $30 beans, but maybe it’s just my pessimistic opinion as of late?

 

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7 minutes ago, Ihfan4life said:

https://iowalandsales.com/speakers/sue-martin/

Is this the Sue Martin that you mentioned ?

My read between the lines interpretation will be double digit inflation. $7.00 gas, and $6 for a gallon of milk, if you can get it.

Realistically I don’t see how you’re going to see $19 corn and $30 beans, but maybe it’s just my pessimistic opinion as of late?

 

Yes I believe so

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Our spring is dryer than normal where im working and back home. Wouldnt that play into it some?

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We are going to see fence row to fence row farming again. Corn and beans are going to be sky high for long enough to get everyone in, then prices will crash! 
We will see a government bailout, again. 
There is no logical explanation for why the market is doing what it is, so I will guarantee that it is going to fall faster than it went up. I just don’t think I should have to bail out the guy who jumped in only to loose his azz!!

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 Using Michigan no till prices per bushel you guy are well ahead of uk prices so 40 bushels to the ton 40 x 7.32(may 21 price)=$292 ton divided by 1.3 £/$exchange rate =£225 ton we're at £200 do you see any more movement upwards or is this the top all our prices are driven by what happens in USA 

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26 minutes ago, Lazy WP said:

We are going to see fence row to fence row farming again. Corn and beans are going to be sky high for long enough to get everyone in, then prices will crash! 
We will see a government bailout, again. 
There is no logical explanation for why the market is doing what it is, so I will guarantee that it is going to fall faster than it went up. I just don’t think I should have to bail out the guy who jumped in only to loose his azz!!

You realize there were special assistance payments already in 2020 and 2021. So unfortunately you’re bailing people out in the good year. 

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I think you guys are all right.  This is what gets people in trouble.  The potential for record profits then the market turning down later.  No doubt there will be more corn going in, rent pricing pushing up, and purchases that will cause issues later.  I would be all for the high prices if they are sustainable and don't crash.  I guess time will tell.

Disclaimer:  I am not a corn farmer.  Could be I guess but for what we are doing on limited acreage I don't know that it pencils out.  

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The last time corn jumped way up, I had a neighbor who contracted 90% of his crop to the local ethanol plant. Plant went belly up and Mike still hasn’t gotten any money. We have all seen just how liquid the ethanol plants are. Look at when oil prices were below $20/barrel. Every ethanol plant was shut down. 
 

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