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How high can it go?


brewcrew
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I got my daily email from the river terminal today. Holy cow! They are just under 6.50 per bushel with basis. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but last time we saw these prices, we also saw $8 corn, didn’t we? The market report this morning suggested resistance below this price, but apparently the traders didn’t get that message. I’ve got maybe two truck loads left that aren’t priced yet, and I’m thinking to let it ride.

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What about milk? Not to hijack, but I know they've been beat up the last few years. I'm curious to know if things are looking up.

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High enough that the boys take out more hay ground for corn and drive hay prices up hopefully.

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Ethanol plant in South Bend was bidding $6.66 today. .15 over board.  Long term not good. Wait till we go buy imputs for next year. 

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10 minutes ago, larv71 said:

Ethanol plant in South Bend was bidding $6.66 today. .15 over board.  Long term not good. Wait till we go buy imputs for next year. 

I agree. High prices will kill high prices. And trying to farm on the back side of high prices is the worst- high inputs and low sales prices 

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2 hours ago, hobbyfarm said:

High enough that the boys take out more hay ground for corn and drive hay prices up hopefully.

Aren't they high enough now?  With the dry summer last year, things are tight here with hay.  I don't see any of this being a good thing other than the initial happiness, all you will do is handle more money, not keep more of it.

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I talked with my broker today, I had a 5000 bushel contract of September corn, owned on paper, I sold it off today for $1.02 a bushel!!! That brings my first 5000 bushels of 2020, May delivery corn up from $3.50 to $4.52 a bushel.  The broker said South America is dry, and the Saffrina crop is hurting, we are cold, dry, and not many acres planted yet, ethanol has a positive basis trying to fill bins, and the end users need corn.  He said corn will have a few down days, but more up days than down, and weather events this summer will just drive it higher, especially if dry conditions persists!!

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50 minutes ago, TP from Central PA said:

Aren't they high enough now?  With the dry summer last year, things are tight here with hay.  I don't see any of this being a good thing other than the initial happiness, all you will do is handle more money, not keep more of it.

Probably best year ever for hay prices here too.  Was dry so less quantity wise for 2nd and after cuttings but the price made up for it.  

Chasing the grain market just seems futile as its multiple crap years to hit a bonanza every now and again.  Just a matter of time until a super record crop from a record amount of acres drops the bottom out again.  

Corn is just stupid expensive to grow anymore.  $$$ seed, $$$ fertilizer, $$$, $$$ herbicide,$$$ planting and harvesting equipment $$$ propane, storage and drying.  If it wasnt used for us as a rotation crop and feed here, wouldnt care to see an acre of it on the place

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54 minutes ago, TP from Central PA said:

Aren't they high enough now?  With the dry summer last year, things are tight here with hay.  I don't see any of this being a good thing other than the initial happiness, all you will do is handle more money, not keep more of it.

Your probably right.  I had put down 2 loads of 33-0-0-12s 3 weeks ago. It was something like $432 a ton.  Without looking I think it was in the 340 range last year.  It makes me want to skimp but that wont pay either.  It was too late but a should have talked to the chicken manure broker.  I would imagine they went up too.  Trouble is that pushes the phosphorus up.  

On a side note.  Straw is super cheap from the previous all time high.  $110 to $140 at auction.  I have an agreement with someone for $100 pre cut rye delivered for the mini baler.

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It is going to create a wreck like none other! Last time this happened everything was really messed up on the farm. Not good on the livestock business! Cash rent, land prices and inputs will all go stupid. We won't make any more money we will just assume more risk with handling more total dollars to do the same thing. I have talked to a lot of neighbors and such, everyone has long sold all their crop from 2020, so no one here is cashing in so to speak.

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51 minutes ago, hobbyfarm said:

Your probably right.  I had put down 2 loads of 33-0-0-12s 3 weeks ago. It was something like $432 a ton.  Without looking I think it was in the 340 range last year.  It makes me want to skimp but that wont pay either.  It was too late but a should have talked to the chicken manure broker.  I would imagine they went up too.  Trouble is that pushes the phosphorus up.  

On a side note.  Straw is super cheap from the previous all time high.  $110 to $140 at auction.  I have an agreement with someone for $100 pre cut rye delivered for the mini baler.

I can see hay being tight this year too, with everyone putting back in row crops...............I am trying to get acouple locals to sell me corn stalks out of the field to bale to blend in the tub grinder with my hay.  

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Dairy is kinda treading.  Not great not horror.  But per cwt is going up with feed and labor.  Now everything else is nuts high.  

Scary since there is no way all this can stay this high.  33000 NYSE and 98/shert plywood.  It cant work much longer.

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9 hours ago, searcyfarms said:

it will be high till harvest time 

Old crop probably, new crop not necessarily.  I expect basis levels to stay very strong through the summer for old crop.  But there will come a point where the end user has enough to get them to harvest and cheaper commodities, then you should she the basis weaken.  If we start to see rain and good growing conditions in IA / IL / IN new crop may be held up some by the nearby or old crop markets, but it should weaken.  Now the question is if we will see that rain, if not things could get wilder.

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On 4/22/2021 at 6:11 PM, KWRB said:

What about milk? Not to hijack, but I know they've been beat up the last few years. I'm curious to know if things are looking up.

No still beat up on milk price and feed and inputs will go through the roof now

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