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pt756

dairy prices ?

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so got our guess check today, milk factory sent a letter along, basically said they are full and will have to drop patrons if production doesn't slow down,  went on to say many of you took your government money and bought more cows, this 20 dollar milk is artificial and consumer demand and buying is slowing down, also did mention a few months ago they did not ask anybody to cut production when many other factories were and guys were dumping milk,this is a hard market to figure out, 1 dollar cheese a couple of months ago and now about 2.50.

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So did the government bailout for dairy actually get distributed? It sounded like it would be a much needed infusion of cash for guys who have struggled too long.

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I was not happy last week when I shopped there was a qty 2 limit on butter by the pound. I explained to the cashier that I ship 6,000 gallons of milk every day 365 and we are told there is a surplus so people should be able to buy whatever they want ....

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holy udders batman thats a ton of white juice - thats like 25+ tons a day yeowza 

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I absolutely do not get any of it. Some farms have a quota, some told to cut back like the original post and then some that can produce as much as they want

 

I guess it depends on the buyer/processor but it's messed up to me

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No limits on anything here thank God.  I feel for you guys that make a living in the dairy sector.  I think the fear of the unknown would kill me.

Just looking at local ag paper this evening.  Hay, straw, fat cattle all down here.  I am no economist but obciously not good.

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 I did some figuring of the stimulus for corn, it appears that's going to be about 17 cents a bushel? boy in the beginning they were saying 67 cents a bushel,

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My brother dairy farms in western New York...His pay price was $12 last month...i don't understand how or where this will end up...the stress on the farmers is unbelievable

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A good friend of the family got out of dairying in 1981.

 Prices then were about 13.50/ cwt.

It was tough to make any money back then,

He sold a lot of good hay to the horse track crowd to make up for the shortfall on the milk side of the balance sheet.

no way this can last.

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Sucks, but to many it's almost time to do like the coal miners, steel workers, and all of the other jobs of the last 25 years that left and start a new career that's growing in demand.

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4 hours ago, RBootsMI said:

Sucks, but to many it's almost time to do like the coal miners, steel workers, and all of the other jobs of the last 25 years that left and start a new career that's growing in demand.

They are all quarantined now 

😃

 

Our pay was tick over 12.  Our coop/CEO new scheme is putting us at a Neg $5 differential so when it does this spike we will only see 15

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I fear the way things are going there will be no new jobs to go to. Once everyone is down and out the trucks will come to take you to the fema camps to keep you safe from the virus.  😷😱😳

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2 hours ago, RBootsMI said:

Sucks, but to many it's almost time to do like the coal miners, steel workers, and all of the other jobs of the last 25 years that left and start a new career that's growing in demand.

Easier said then done. When you dairy it takes years to build a dairy, I’m not talking buildings and land base, I’m talking cows and genetics. You don’t get that back if you idle the dairy for a year. That’s why a lot of guys keep plugging away with hopes things will turn around.

What we need is a sustainable dairy plan, not what we have now where you’re expecting to forever be in expansion mode

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hey troy I forgot about the PPD  where they will use the excuse to not pay the higher price, guess we will only have to wait a couple of weeks to see if the higher price happens, while we applied for the cfap payment it hasn't arrived yet and  from what I understood talking to the fsa its not a  as good as I thought originally. meanwhile for those that are getting out , cow prices the last few weeks are up compared to the last few months and decent used machinery is in  good demand, as said before farmers are their own worst enemy when it comes to production, produce when the price is low and add a few when the price is high, quotas I just don't see ever happening in my lifetime,

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4 hours ago, pt756 said:

hey troy I forgot about the PPD  where they will use the excuse to not pay the higher price, guess we will only have to wait a couple of weeks to see if the higher price happens, while we applied for the cfap payment it hasn't arrived yet and  from what I understood talking to the fsa its not a  as good as I thought originally. meanwhile for those that are getting out , cow prices the last few weeks are up compared to the last few months and decent used machinery is in  good demand, as said before farmers are their own worst enemy when it comes to production, produce when the price is low and add a few when the price is high, quotas I just don't see ever happening in my lifetime,

From my understanding ( as a former dairy farmer looking in) these quotas that they supposedly have in place is nothing more than wack a mole. 
If you buy the neighbors cows you get his production basis too.
Are these guys buying that basis or just assuming that basis?

I thought your basis was tied to your equity and it stayed with you until you sold it or your equity was cashed out? 

Back to my train of thought, now those cows you bought for the additional basis, end up as culls, it’s my understanding that because of depressed cull prices, there’s government $$ to offset that loss, so... you bought the cows cheap and acquired additional basis. You cull these new cows, or a percentage of them, collect the additional money from Uncle Sam, and go out and buy more cows, thus continuing the vicious cycle.

Then you wonder why there’s a milk surplus.

The idea of ever expanding dairies is a house of cards. You can not manipulate the markets and continue to call it a free market.

Isn’t it funny how everyone said we needed diversification on these farms when mad cow disease was prevalent, thus more farms, and smaller farms, what happened to that idea?

These larger farms are going to become a target for globalist. After all, in the words of some congressmen, you didn’t build it... and food should be free...( my conclusion based on current stupidity) 

Free market agriculture is on the ropes. And I don’t say this lightly 

 

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5 hours ago, Ihfan4life said:

These larger farms are going to become a target for globalists

They probably already are or soon will be if things continue politically as they appear to be at the moment.

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By the time these cidiots wake up a lot of farms will be gone forever. They think food prices are high now just wait. Look at what happened in South Africa 15-20 years ago killing the white farmer so the blacks could have the land back. they are in a world of hurt now, found out it's not so easy being a farmer plenty of hungry people wanting the white guys back.

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9 hours ago, 806 man said:

By the time these cidiots wake up a lot of farms will be gone forever. They think food prices are high now just wait. Look at what happened in South Africa 15-20 years ago killing the white farmer so the blacks could have the land back. they are in a world of hurt now, found out it's not so easy being a farmer plenty of hungry people wanting the white guys back.

Are they?  The political stupidity in our day.....they prob think Soros needs a new program to better distribute food that was grown with 0 inputs on land that is owned by the "people" an managed with a app.  Racism in the US......has anyone been anywhere else?  Give me a break.  We aint perfect but we aint the Majority of the world.  See a minority leader in China, Japan, jordan, Africa (any nation), central America's? The the list goes on.....

 

We had some DRP (insurance) and thank God for that but i dont know whats going to happen going out.  I really dont know who to believe.  As long a huge retailers control the narrative we will never be compensated fairly in ag imho.

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13 hours ago, 806 man said:

By the time these cidiots wake up a lot of farms will be gone forever. They think food prices are high now just wait. Look at what happened in South Africa 15-20 years ago killing the white farmer so the blacks could have the land back. they are in a world of hurt now, found out it's not so easy being a farmer plenty of hungry people wanting the white guys back.

Some think the UN and folks like Soros, Gates ect want a smaller world population. They may not CARE if farmes survive. Some scenarios see one world gov promising to take care of us in fema camps as they declare large tracts of land abandoned. If we run short on food and the virus is still being touted as world ending plauge they could get it done....echos of Hitlers camps?

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well now they are printing it the higher milk price due to the price of cheese might not happen because the class 4 price didn't catch up. expect a 5 dollar a cwt. ppd cut. gee that kind of lets the air out the diary balloon, I will bet the cheese makers were able to sell at the cme price, now I wonder about the run up in grain prices due to the usda miscalculation of the acerage. only missed by 5 million acres on corn,

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Think about it. How long does it take to get the milk from the tank, to shelves? Two weeks or longer if it's cheese.. the high prices in the store are nothing more than a gain play in the pocket book for the corporates. Paid 10-12 cwt for the milk, and then jack the price up in the store. Farmers get happy, usually store prices take a while to reflect back to the farm, now, they say it hasn't caught up, and expect to get less than what was previously stated. More money padding their wallets. I agree that dairy industry might be a dying breed for the smaller guys. It's a hard pill to swallow because I am one of them. But, on the other hand, people are also becoming very mindful of where their food is coming from, mostly the millennial generation. I do solely think that there will be an influx of do it yourselfers out there and will have one or two cows themselves. I think the best way would be to bottle the milk right on the spot. Cut out the distributor, and make it all and help control your price inputs. But dang.... That's almost a whole nother farms payment to borrow to hopefully get a good return..

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If it keeps up, for profit farms that can't make a profit will meet their demise. Food prices will skyrocket, and we will go back a hundred years in time to subsistence farming. There will be death. Only corporate and subsistence farms will be left. Marxism at it's finest. And then everybody will lament the good ole days of 2019. Educated morons! Not us, them.

 

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2 hours ago, cobfly said:

If it keeps up, for profit farms that can't make a profit will meet their demise. Food prices will skyrocket, and we will go back a hundred years in time to subsistence farming. There will be death. Only corporate and subsistence farms will be left. Marxism at it's finest. And then everybody will lament the good ole days of 2019. Educated morons! Not us, them.

 

Yup!

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4 hours ago, MinnesotaFarmall said:

 I think the best way would be to bottle the milk right on the spot. Cut out the distributor, and make it all and help control your price inputs. But dang.... That's almost a whole nother farms payment to borrow to hopefully get a good return..

The idiots in our state Ag dept(VT) was developing a plan to (get this) put bottled milk in small on farm stands for consumers to stop and buy milk.

No mention on who would be bottling that milk, who would be running the farm stand, rotating inventories, etc. No mention on how this bottled milk was going to be delivered to the farm. No mention on where the bottled milk actually came from😱🤯😳😖

Need I go on? Yet, when I told the lenders I wanted to bottle milk, had a business plan in the works, they dismissed it as not workable, etc. etc. 

Needless to say that I’m less than impressed by our Ag department... mess of idiots running the asylum. After all, Hemp was the next gold rush last year, this year hardly any hemp is being grown.

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Only problem with substance farming is that each person needs x amount of land to grow enough food for themselves. We've already run out of capacity boys... Let that sink in. Most people think oh, I'll go hunt for my meat. Yea, bet you will, you and thousands more. We are already limited to so many animals now. 

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