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was talking to semen sales guy yesterday about all of this dairy stuff, whats the future, well he said he was at a eastern conference recently, 1/3 of herds have quit yet we are up about 400 thousand cows. wis, losing 2 a day, next he said beef semen is their biggest seller right now along with sexed semen. some guys are breeding up to 75% of herd to beef, average about 50%, then another comment they have a guy that works with the large herds thru out the Midwest , comment was that those that were at 4, 5 thousand cows are going to 10 and 12 thousand, then we talked about volume premiums, he said one of his 2 thousand cow dairies trucks his own milk , was getting sometimes 3 and 4 bucks extra, now he was told about 20 cents a cwt, not much incentive as I had commented the factories don't  seem to be paying much for volume weather big or small. the last thing we mentioned was debt loads, said there has got to be 10, 12 thousand dollar debt loads per cow, one of his farms sold to 2 investors from overseas. they own 53 % and nothing has changed, so the last thing he said was they only have to show a profit once every seven years, I don't understand why you would buy to lose money every year , just to say you own a farm? and he also said just to many cows out there now.

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Is this going to be one of those deals where everyone is broke, a crisis arises, (didn’t I see something about tuberculosis in Wisconsin?) which throws a massive scare into the mix of things, the media gets ahold of it essentially pouring gas onto a fire, further destabilizing milk prices. It causes such a disaster that the government finally has to do something, which now puts another story into the media talking about a milk shortage that it drives prices up to record breaking levels and thus averting world war 3?

Happy Halloween...👻

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38 minutes ago, Ihfan4life said:

Is this going to be one of those deals where everyone is broke, a crisis arises, (didn’t I see something about tuberculosis in Wisconsin?) which throws a massive scare into the mix of things, the media gets ahold of it essentially pouring gas onto a fire, further destabilizing milk prices. It causes such a disaster that the government finally has to do something, which now puts another story into the media talking about a milk shortage that it drives prices up to record breaking levels and thus averting world war 3?

Happy Halloween...👻

Sounds logical to me 

happy Halloween 👻 🎃 

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the only dairy we use is local (regional now) use to be at front door 8am 3d a week ,

it is just tolerable plastic and peroxide yum yum 

today they own no cows,but 6-7 processors,various outlets and many drink products go down same line,but no finished product containing milk solid

farmer gets nothing yet store price is over the top and Hamptons $$$ if it has real milk

ice cream $6 for 44 oz  Has 30-50 other ingredients but no actual cream....$12 for pint= 1 oz milk byproduct

cheese $8-14 lb   oils   no milk 

hate shopping so cant think of the other labels/ (dairy)products at moment that contain NO milk

those 30 fake /garbage products have to cost < $.50  to beat the low milk wholesale cost

 

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cow in Dane county was confirmed with tb.I would think there will be a lot of nervous dairymen in the area.hopefully its confined to just 1 herd. most herds are not vaccinate anymore because WI. has not had tb senses the early 80s.

 

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On 10/31/2018 at 9:19 AM, pt756 said:

was talking to semen sales guy yesterday about all of this dairy stuff, whats the future, well he said he was at a eastern conference recently, 1/3 of herds have quit yet we are up about 400 thousand cows. wis, losing 2 a day, next he said beef semen is their biggest seller right now along with sexed semen. some guys are breeding up to 75% of herd to beef, average about 50%, then another comment they have a guy that works with the large herds thru out the Midwest , comment was that those that were at 4, 5 thousand cows are going to 10 and 12 thousand, then we talked about volume premiums, he said one of his 2 thousand cow dairies trucks his own milk , was getting sometimes 3 and 4 bucks extra, now he was told about 20 cents a cwt, not much incentive as I had commented the factories don't  seem to be paying much for volume weather big or small. the last thing we mentioned was debt loads, said there has got to be 10, 12 thousand dollar debt loads per cow, one of his farms sold to 2 investors from overseas. they own 53 % and nothing has changed, so the last thing he said was they only have to show a profit once every seven years, I don't understand why you would buy to lose money every year , just to say you own a farm? and he also said just to many cows out there now.

You need to go to west Texas or Eastern New Mexico and see the large dairies that are in that area Many of these dairies are selling out in California and rebuilding in that area. They end up with way larger dairies, less government BS, Cheaper labor, Cheap feed, and have money left from selling out in California.

People buy in to farms to hide money, They can lose money and still be money ahead. AS long as it makes money so many years they are good. These people don't want to pay this money to government in taxes. 

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2,000 head dairy quarantined with  bovine tb , is 2 miles away from home. (  Dane County, WI) No animal come on  or leave site.

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21 hours ago, Deerefarmer said:

My family recently sold our dairy herd 70 percent went for beef its strange to see our farm empty 

That’s a feeling that never goes away. Just something about a dairy farm/ barn with no cows in it. Sad

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  • 2 weeks later...

Since local dairy had to be quarantined, I got letter today explaining Bovine TB and  any deer taken in surrounding townships (9) must be tested for bovine TB. Head & 6" neck tissue for testing @ 5 area sampling locations.

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Well little update from the PNW....

Idaho----Box Creek Dairy, 5-6k milking.  Selling off heifers and 3000+ head next week.  Another dairyman bought 2000 X breeds from them and is leasing facility and adding onto his 45000 +/- head and co-owned MPC plant in ID.

WA----Guy 5 hr S of here got $500 a head straight across for 400 at sale.

ID----Family that between 3-4 brothers has 18-25k milking is selling off 1500 heifers next month

CA---3600 cow jersey dairy sold last weekend, rumors are price was poor.  Also, bank is ordering 2 dairies of the guy from OR with the huge bankruptcy to be sold turn key.  Dairy in OR has till 1st of year then selling 6000 J and X.  Heifers left are being sold video with ID families next week...2500 apx I guessss.  Be good to get that mess cleared out.

TX-----family from CA, verrry sharp folks.  They have about 65k head on 5 places (all this from foggy memory) in Dahlhart area are beginning to build a new set of dairies that will bring their total head in milk in TX to 130k.  How they bank that is beyond me frankly.  That's Insurance CO/bond market stuff.  I would personally want to have CONCRETE contract or own processing with contracts before even thinking of that but...I am not too bright.  I have NO idea where the milk will be going unless Hilmar has big plans.  We dont need any more cheese the market is telling us but......as the chickens went here we go.

WA----Cull cows are 70-80c hanging.....only got 400 for 2 lighter hol culls last week....together.  Jersey guy told me he is happy with 20c a lb hanging.  Our local sale barn has broke it's records of cull cattle last 6 sales.  120-150 2x a week.

WA----Broker here feels in 2 years we will have HUGE hfr shortage since so many are breeding beef and they just wont be around.  Also that the calf/beef market is gonna implode with all our ang X coming online.  We will have 3-4 a week easy and buddy with 5000 will have 300 per month.  Going to suck for anyone with beef to sell i am afraid.  But do we go back to hol sires 100% and hang on and hope they jump to 2-3k again and make some big $ selling excess?

We grossed 17.60cwt this month (OCT), highest in 18m.  Look like Nov will be low 16s.  No fun.  Our plan to diversify may be becoming a change of career entirely.  Wish we had some sorta light for winter or spring.  This report [below] aint encouraging either.  But hey.......Costco makes SURE it's suppliers provide a fair wage to their laborers around the globe....well not the farmers/owners.....&^%$ them, they are trying to oppress and poison people.  

These guys are pretty straight shooters......

https://www.kdmtrading.com/kdmreports/2018/KDM Dairy Report 11-16-18.pdf

 

Something dont add up.  The connect from consumer to farmer is 1000 miles apart.  The prices in store are nearly the same as 2-3-4 years ago and to the producers is 20-40% lower for near all commodities.  No connection any more to sell off over supplies or encourage more supply.  Makes 0 sense.  Few huge buyers are running the system it feels like.  Demands for X and Y etc etc and never any financial compensation.   The COOPs dont give 2 craps obviously or they could do something.  They CAN say NO, NONE of us will fill a order for below X price.  They still manage 60% of milk supply.  But....just venting.  Just getting so disheartening to see everyone getting kicked in the nuts.

 

 

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wow, that is a heck of a read, i just need to process for awhile,

 

 

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On 11/1/2018 at 10:33 AM, Rainman said:

2,000 head dairy quarantined with  bovine tb , is 2 miles away from home. (  Dane County, WI) No animal come on  or leave site.

interesting...haven't heard of that at work yet?  Will have to ask my guys I deliver to Tuesday/Wednesday  (Avoca, Cottage Grove, Cobb, Albany, Darlington, Mineral Point to name some stops)

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neighbor told me last week at local sale barn 2 herds 100 cows and 120 cows. one free stall the other tie stall. he thought the average was about 580 for one and 650 for the other, meanwhile stopped a t local place for hamburger after church last night.  friends that we play cards with said that christensens  had sale over in western wis , 2 day sale last week. over 600 cows they claim a 1500  dollar average. squire farms was the name. my friends have about 400 cows they received about 25 cents a cwt. more for there milk than we did with our 100 cows. they use to be at 1.50 or better than our price. there comment was use to get 80 cents for volume, now they pay more for hauling. morale of story seems the 400 cow guys aren't being treated much better than the smaller guys. factories use to drool over those type of pickups. our price also was about 17.50 , expecting a quite a drop next month. have not paid attention lately but guy that works at meyer forage box claims this week off and already Christmas week off plus he said it is slow. was talk they laid guys off. and I agree with you on calf deal, 650 cow neighbor is breeding whole herd to beef. and sold all heifers, was paying people to raised them anyway, friends breed a lot to beef also sold 7  calves last week got decent money about 230 average but that is way off from the 350 to 400 a few months ago. I am sure we will screw that market up to.

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and recently a township in taylor county,  little black has been in a disagreement with north breeze dairy about building a 4k dairy, I see in the star news that the town ship lost an appeal again, they have been at this for over 10 years now. kind of just what this are needs a another 4k cows.

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posted on life in our corner recently vet said one of his clients is shooting every other heifer calf, around here their price is terrible 5 to 25 dollars a piece if they even sell. was at macine shop today owner raises steers on the side , heard that local sale barn didn't even have a calf buyer there on Tuesday could be a bad rumor, cheese dropped again along with class 3 down to mid 14.s now, combine that with this very cold snowy weather we have been experiencing the last 45 days, not a lot of fun,

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Holstein baby calves (usually always bulls) at  markets this week (11-26 ) in North Carolina  were 7.50 to 35.00 at one,  20.00 to 35.00 at another. and 40.00 to 60.00 at another. I sold a non-breeding Holstein heifer at one of those yards Monday. Will  post weight and price when I receive settlement check . 

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