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oldtanker last won the day on May 25

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About oldtanker

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  • Birthday 06/03/1955

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    Old tractors, hunting, fishing. Home Brewing! SCUBA.

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  1. OH, you forgot, some of it's even being harvested in other areas! Rick
  2. Weather happens. That's the gamble part of farming. Most of that area is wheat, already harvested, flax, already harvested, corn that will still be there when the snow melts and some beans. Losses from that area really are not going to have much effect on the markets. Pretty sad when a farmer has to rely on weather to straiten out the markets. Little flooding here, drought there and an early blizzard over yonder. A guy that loses a crop I have a great deal of sympathy for. Fortuitously for them there is government subsidized crop insurance. But when you figure that 33 MILLION more acres of corn was planted in just one year? Nation wide? And you don't see that as a potential problem? And it's production when it's harvested. The guy sitting on 100,000 bushels of corn when it's selling at 4 bucks a bushel? And his break even point is 4.50? Well maybe hthey should have looked into another crop. This has been going on for decades. For decades "Farm Economists" have been telling farmers to produce more. For decades the farmer has been blaming God, the weatherman, the elevator, the consumer and the government for all of their ills. And anyone who even hints that the farmer might be at fault too is the bad guy. But really it's pretty simple. Produce more of anything than the consumer can use and you take are going to drive prices down. And the farmer is part of that problem and therefore has to be part of the solution. Playing the blame game like the farmer has sense around 1980 doesn't fix anything. Rick
  3. Heck they are 3D printing houses........ House . Guess they started doing this a few years ago. So nothing new really. Rick
  4. I would not surprise me in the least if that didn't come from the government. Sounds like something they would put out to appease the masses. I have nothing against most businesses big or small. But we, the little guys, lose sight that the primary reason to own or invest in a business is to make money. It's a business, not a charity. The most corrupt businesses I've ever seen were small businesses. Here at least. They yelled, cried and fought tooth and nail to keep WalMart out. Already had Target, Pamida and Kmart. Claimed they couldn't compete against WalMart yet they competed against Target, Pamida and Kmart? WalMart came in and mom and pop were still in business? Still taking vacations? Even after lowing prices on average of 15%? To me that says they were gouging their friends and neighbors by 15 or more % for decades! Now that isn't saying that big business doesn't lie cheat and steal. They do. But mom and pop were not too honest either in some cases. A single store dealership has to have more of a markup to cover overhead than a chain. Just a proven fact. Now who pays when you do business with that smaller store? The proprietor isn't going to take it in the shorts. He passes those extra expenses onto the customer, Same thing with any small business. Heck 2 of the worst dealers I ever saw were small single store operations. One JD and the other Ford/NH. The JG guy was just a crook. The Ford owner didn't want to sell the AG line but the only way with his location that Ford allowed him to keep selling cars and trucks was if he was an AG dealer too. Rick
  5. On the tractor parts? That was in there too. If they only sell one item a couple of times a year they have to plan on making a special run, set up a line to make that run, then warehouse an item until it sells. It all cost money. Get to a certain point and people won't pay for the part and or it just isn't profitable for say CASEIH. Been through this recently when working on a 706 Farmall. They can't ship what they didn't make because it wasn't profitable. Not true IMO. What's killed off small town America is a number of things. Started with the general population getting angry about the government price supports for farm commodities. Then was followed up by a grain embargo. Right on the heals of the grain embargo was a recession. As farms dies off by the millions nation wide the jobs in local towns dried up too. Elevators and creameries closed. The workers had to find different jobs. Often 20-30 miles away. The local businesses didn't change store hours to meet the needs of their friends and neighbors. Old Joe was now leaving home to drive 30 miles to work. Was out of town by 7:15 AM. Didn't get back home till 5:45 PM or a little later. Local town hardware store hours was still 9 AM to 5 PM. And then the owner cried because old Joe bought his plumbing parts after work 30 miles away at a hardware store that was open to 9PM. IN most areas that happened long before WalMart came to town. Now the problem is compounded. The old store owner who inherited the store and had no real debt load has retired. Like the farmer the kids don't want it so they sell. Now the new owner had a heavy debt load and just can't compete. Now add in the internet. Could be the person who said that flunked math or economics or both. If that were true that would mean that for every dollar a diary farmer earned he borrowed 14? Times change. Rick
  6. How many other people in your area regularly buy that product? Of for that matter nation wide? Shelf space in a store cost money. It's not profitable to have an item sit for long periods without any turnover. Business 101. Don't care if they CAN carry it. No sense in carrying something they may sell one every 2-3 months. Or even once a month unless it's a big ticket item with a lot of markup. Plus it cost money to put it on the shelf in the first place. Purchase, labor, space on the shelf that can hold an item that moves some every day. Labor to front those shelves and dust. Lot of things most of don't even think about. If it's a consumable with a expiration date that's even worse. Same thing with a lot of parts. Not profitable to make parts then have to store them. Take a 50 year old tractor that they maybe sold a total of 15-20 thousand. Figure 1/2 have been scrapped. Figure another 5K or so sitting in the wood line. Now you want engine parts? Especially on something like an IH German diesel that may go 10-12,000 hours? It's just not profitable. The only conspiracy there is that company is trying to make profit. They ain't going to do that by setting up and doing a special run of maybe 10 engine kits that may sit in a warehouse for 2-3 years. So yes, they are conspiring to make a profit. Rick I live in a rural area of MN. I ask my local parts store how many sets of points they sell a year. Answer is about 3-4 sets. They don't even carry any in stock because it's not profitable to have a selection of em sitting on the shelf.
  7. IS there some price fixing? I'm sure there is. But right now there is no shortage of milk either. Most farm commonalities are the same way. When there is a shortage milk goes up as does grain or livestock. When you produce more than is consumed then the price tanks. It's really that simple. Are the processors making bank? Sure they are. And the farmer is playing right into their hands. They know a farmer can't take that milt directly from that cow and sell it to a store. They helped get the laws governing that passed. So like any other farmer you have a limited market to sell to. In the case of dairy to a processor that buys dairy. Grain? To a processor or elevator and so on. So the buyer had the farmer over the barrel. And in part the problem is every time prices go up farmers as a whole increase production. So while there may be some market manipulation the farmer is NEVER going to get out of this until they accept at least some of the responsibility. Kinda like that ole drunk. Can't fix anything until you accept that you are part of the problem. The sad truth to it is the small farm is dead. Making it on 200 acres and 20 cows is a pipe dream. As I said before, people want things. Most are not OK with barely squeaking by. So the whole subsistence farming things is long dead. They want that new car, flat screen TV and latest Xbox. So the little guy works off farm and farms on the side. Or the spouse works in town to help pay the bills. You are in a situation where if you don't grow you are never going to make good money at it and have the farm as a sole source to support yourself and family with all the things people want today. Really tuff for the younger crowd. But the idea of a start up operation? You better be willing to go very deep in debt. It's a thing of the past for the most part. You can sit here and complain about it all day. But times changed. People today are for the most part unwilling to do without. So most are going to be unwilling to make the sacrifices needed. I know of 3 or 4 small dairies that have folded in just the last year. Old guy milking 80 retired, nephew milking 50 got rid of the dairy. Just wasn't making enough to justify the costs. He's still cropping nearly 1200 acres and running 150 head of beef. At least one the bank shut down, was milking about 80. Kinda figured that guy was going to fail. Hired too much help, had to have newer equipment. Just too much debt load. As the wise man said, at the end of the day you gotta make a profit. Which means it isn't a life style. It's a business and has to be treated like one. Rick
  8. Still doesn't matter guys. The issues are the same. Don't matter what you produce. If you produce more than the market needs you wind up getting less money. Reduce production across the board and you make more per unit, in the case of milk per 100. No The market won't fix itself overnight. And the consumer isn't to pay more for milk either if they can help it. But until someone gets it figured out it's going to continue to be an issue. And it's not just milk. It's any commodity where the buyer sets the price. Corn, beans, oats and wheat included. Sure a guy can contract a grain crop but basically the buyer is paying the farmer to store it until a certain date. GM doesn't run a line full tilt 24/7/365 unless the demand is there. Compaq computers overproduced one year. The following year HP bought em out. Now I'm a big believer in free markets. But about the only way to make this work right now IMO is if the feds stick their noses in here and mandate quotes. Looks to me like an 80 cow dairy closes 10 small guys add 20 cows each and at lest one BTO adds 100. Darn ole tail is wagging the dog. Rick
  9. But you forgot to add in that adding a cow isn't necessarily going to make you more profitable. Should not add that cow or plant that extra acre without first looking to see where supply and demand is. If say supply and demand are pretty balanced right now adding that cow could tip the balance resulting in lower prices. Kinda like that baker in the town of 200. He sells 200 donuts a day. So he decides to make 210 and at the end of the day has 10 donuts sitting there unsold. Tomorrow he's going to make 200 donuts. And the farmer has to approach it from that angle. Plus size matters. A large operation most likely gets some type of volume discount. And you can yell it isn't fair all day. Go buy a new truck. Then find a small company who bought the same truck in a fleet purchase of so 10 trucks. See what they paid per truck. Now go look and see what a company that bought say 500 of them. Large companies get volume discounts that small companies don't get. Part of the issue faced by farmers today is the fact that for decades people preached that the pathway to success was to up production. Now no one want to face the issue of over production. The politicians like cheap food so they won't address production. The consumer isn't out to hurt production either. And of course the farmer is out there too busy trying to up production to pay attention😉. But because the so called experts keep telling farmers that they need to produce more to be profitable the farmer isn't willing to address it. Rick
  10. Double tagged reflective might work? Only way to know would be to contact someone who's in a position to do a study and find out. Guy I knew at Ft Riley back in the 70's was out running the gravel roads one night. Knowing him? Most likely as fast as he could go. Out west of Wakefield KS he hit a cow in the road. From what we found out it was a full grown cow, he was driving a Pinto. He didn't survive. Don't know about the cow. He was dating a girl from up in that area. Rick
  11. Did a tour of the Cat plant a could of years ago. Cat is printing engine parts with metal printers. Printer will make a part that is difficult to make that requires a minimum of machining to be usable. It's very cool technology! Not expensive anymore either. My printer was 260 bucks. Rick
  12. Certainly! Here most of the start up farms milking 80 head in the 90's have either gone big or failed. And in the 90's a banker wouldn't even talk to anyone here unless they were going 80 head or larger. So yea, next small dairy will be 400-500 head. Part of the problem is people change. In the 20's/30's and clear up through the end of the 60's most small family farms are what's now called subsistence farms. The farmer raised enough for his family and a little extra for themselves. The wife and kids were the farm labor plus they put up a garden and canned their own food. Mom made a lot of their clothing. Heck feed/flour bags came in prints so the material could be reused for clothing. Was a big deal as the farmer's wife might demand a certain brand because of the pattern on the bag. Today most folks are not content with subsistence farming. They want nice stuff too. Mom ain't going to make sissy's new dress from feed bags. Farmer really isn't any different than a city person. They like new stuff. Cars/trucks, flat screen TV's and surround sound. You can't afford the latest tablet and cell phone for JR, new car for the wife, new truck for you and a prom dress of JRett on 40-50 cows. When we first moved here lot of the local small farmers (10-15 head) didn't even own a TV and there were a lot of 20 year old cars/trucks on the road. The big guys with 30-50 head had new stuff. And the really big BTOs (100-200) head were living large. And the guys that claim that their kids are OK with having little compared compared to their peer group? Your kids will be the ones picking your nursing home.....😱🤣 Actually the as I call them, the "haves" really lord it over the "have nots". Anyone who believes that kids don't bully anymore needs to have their heads examined. They bully. They just do it where they don't think an adult is going to see it. This stuff has an effect on the small farm. Ain't just prices. People like leisure time too. All these folks who claim the bad old days were better? Well they should read the studies. 100 years ago the average person spent most of their waking day doing things that had to do with survival. If they were not at work they were cutting fire wood or stacking coal against the coming winter or tending garden and canning. Making house repairs, mending/making clothing, cooking and every other little thing that had to be done to survive. Studies indicate that in 1900 the average person had a few hours a week of leisure time. Today it's more like several hours a day. Even with livestock to care for the farmer would like to have several hours a day like that too. Or the freedom from animal husbandry to take a 2 week vacation. So the small farmer only thinks about vacations and leisure time. And that doesn't make him better. Cause if need be most of the city guys would go back to subsistence living if that's what it took to survive. Rick
  13. Nephew married a girl who is now a psychiatrist. I told here when I met her "you got your hands full marrying into this family"! Rick
  14. Bought a 3 D printer. Found this online! I know some kids who are going to be very happy! Rick
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