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pt756

todays dairy economics?

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was talking to local sale barn manager today (central wis.) with several herds a week being offered I asked him are there enough buyers left for all these herds. they get sold he said but I think many just go to kill. I had mentioned we have a lot of nice older cows 3 and 4 lactations good scc,s and still have life in them yet, he said probably would go for dairy but don't expect much over kill price. springing heifers about 11 to 13 hundred. we have done such a good job at raising replacements that we have I think flooded the market with cattle , plus what I see around here are a lot of 40 to 50 cow herds being sold off. so we were told to diversify raise some row crops, I heard corn locally about 2.85 a bushel. soybeans a little better 8.80. I am starting to see the mennonite put up these huge chicken barns for eggs. agriculture lately just seems kind of stale or sideways not to good and not to bad. so when we see those 10k an acre land how does that work. a neighbor is putting in 4 robots 2,5 million, debt loads of 10 to 14 thousand per cow. I wonder if this will all come out in the end?

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When you figure it out let me know, I don't understand it.   

 

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1 hour ago, pt756 said:

was talking to local sale barn manager today (central wis.) with several herds a week being offered I asked him are there enough buyers left for all these herds. they get sold he said but I think many just go to kill. I had mentioned we have a lot of nice older cows 3 and 4 lactations good scc,s and still have life in them yet, he said probably would go for dairy but don't expect much over kill price. springing heifers about 11 to 13 hundred. we have done such a good job at raising replacements that we have I think flooded the market with cattle , plus what I see around here are a lot of 40 to 50 cow herds being sold off. so we were told to diversify raise some row crops, I heard corn locally about 2.85 a bushel. soybeans a little better 8.80. I am starting to see the mennonite put up these huge chicken barns for eggs. agriculture lately just seems kind of stale or sideways not to good and not to bad. so when we see those 10k an acre land how does that work. a neighbor is putting in 4 robots 2,5 million, debt loads of 10 to 14 thousand per cow. I wonder if this will all come out in the end?

Hey, does the neighbor guy have a robot barn already?  I may know him...  He maybe leasing the robots....they have some killer programs now.  And milk per cow...great investments imho.

Seems like the economy is hot hot.  And ag suffers.  Old guys say if ag bad then econ good and vice versa.  Looks true dont it?

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There are two large dairy "farms" getting much bigger here, SE Indiana. One is adding 1400 head, the other 4000head. Almost no other dairy guys left. Seems to be the same old story -  get big or get the F*** out. Sad reality. Hogs headed that way too. One large guy is wanting to add 40-50 4000 head finishers. It takes a lot of land just for manure. About 20 years ago same guy did a bunch of 800 head buildings. Smaller farms could handle the manure and a few guys signed up. Don't know what will happen this time.

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Economists all preach you have to get bigger every year, junior goes off to college and the professors preach the same thing, so farmers listen and get bigger, supply’s more milk chasing the prices downward into a perpetual tailspin.

Meanwhile, consumers b#%^* about the size of farms- factory farms and all that- they complain about smells and amount of manure being applied to the land, and start the politicians into a regulation death spiral.

Than they start in on organic milk, where all farms need to start producing organic milk, sending that market into a tailspin.

 Seems like the dairy farmers were better off when there was more of us...?

Sid

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ALL farmers were better off when there were more of em. Jmo

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12 minutes ago, iowaboy1965 said:

ALL farmers were better off when there were more of em. Jmo

Agreed

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Just like any other industry, it's bad when it gets too consolidated. All it takes is one poorly managed company to send the whole market into upset. But ultimately I say let them roll, but apply the same financial policies to them that everyone has to face. No bailouts. They like to use size and consequences as leverage to get treatment no one else can get.

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I think the Mennonites that are doing the egg barns told me when he started they were going to get about 1 to 1.5 cents per egg. they supplied building. what id the milk factory comes in the yard and says well this is what we will give you for the next year? we are kind of there alrewady

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58 minutes ago, rcb said:

Just like any other industry, it's bad when it gets too consolidated. All it takes is one poorly managed company to send the whole market into upset. But ultimately I say let them roll, but apply the same financial policies to them that everyone has to face. No bailouts. They like to use size and consequences as leverage to get treatment no one else can get.

You mean like........the auto and banking industries?    :ph34r:

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27 minutes ago, iowaboy1965 said:

You mean like........the auto and banking industries?    :ph34r:

Touché!

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12 hours ago, TroyDairy said:

Hey, does the neighbor guy have a robot barn already?  I may know him...  He maybe leasing the robots....they have some killer programs now.  And milk per cow...great investments imho.

Seems like the economy is hot hot.  And ag suffers.  Old guys say if ag bad then econ good and vice versa.  Looks true dont it?

   In my 50 years of Farming , I truly believe the above adage , Saw it happen many times.

       Tony 

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it wasn't just a few years ago when our products were good 20 dollar milk 7 dollar corn that you would open up the shopper or area buyers guide there were no help wanted ads for jobs, now there are several pages full for our small area and banners and signs up now hiring,

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We are a dairy county here in New York State. Small farms dropping out rapidly. Our Ag. and Farm Land Protection Committee is working on a list of alternatives: hemp, hops, goats, beef  etc. Even organic milk market has become saturated. We haven't found the answer to the problem yet. An alternative requires a market, may require special machinery and investment. Two of my neighbors are supplying roughage to one of the large dairies. That dairy by the way has just built a new barn 1160 feet long. They have a new huge milking parlor also.

Ag Day this morning said that the near future doesn't look like a better milk price. We don't know what the answer is.  Ken Ryan

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so now this morning listened to the dairy futures 14.92 kind of like a job wondering if you are going to ever get that raise.

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On 11/7/2017 at 9:58 AM, iowaboy1965 said:

You mean like........the auto and banking industries?    :ph34r:

Exactly. GM wouldn't have went under, but they certainly would have to had to reorganize. It would have been very bad for a while, but in the end it would have been better for everyone instead of propping up inflation. All it has done is prolong the issues to another day.

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34 minutes ago, rcb said:

Exactly. GM wouldn't have went under, but they certainly would have to had to reorganize. It would have been very bad for a while, but in the end it would have been better for everyone instead of propping up inflation. All it has done is prolong the issues to another day.

They probably wouldv'e been bought out by a Chinese company.

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It sounds like the bowl will be swirling around for a while yet.......

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8 hours ago, bitty said:

It sounds like the bowl will be swirling around for a while yet.......

I don’t see a GM style bailout happening either...

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